Probabeel's the Deal

Probabeel (2 f Savabeel - Far Fetched, by Pins) gave herself a chance of emulating stable-mate and Champion Two-Year-Old Avantage (Fastnet Rock) with a tremendous victory in the $22,500 NZB Insurance Pearl Series 2YO 1200 metres on 13 January at Ellerslie, a race in which she also collected an $8,000 bonus as a New Zealand Bloodstock sales graduate.

A year ago, Avantage won the corresponding race prior to her victory in the $1m Karaka Million (Restricted Listed, 1200m) and Probabeel will be attempting to match the feat on 26 January at Ellerslie.

Probabeel was purchased by David Ellis for $380,000, from the draft of Waikato Stud, at the Karaka Book 1 Sale in January last year and was then snapped up by owners Brendan Lindsay MNZM & Jo Lindsay at Cambridge Stud, who a day earlier gained another Karaka Million eligible entrant when Te Akau trainer Jamie Richards prepared Louis Luck (Dissident) to win on debut over 1200 metres at Trentham.

“I thought she had no show and looked like she might run third at best with fifty metres to go, so pretty impressive and I'm pretty happy,” said Brendan Lindsay, after Probabeel came from off the pace with what is already becoming, in only three starts, her trademark devastating turn of foot.

“I thought Opie (Bosson) just waited for his moment and I'll have to watch it again. You know, you get excited."

Lindsay said it was a bit of a (nice) surprise to also have Louis Luck now qualified. “He's been named after our dog, Louis, and poor little Louis had to watch the video ten times last night and he's not interested at all.”

Richards now has five live chances for the Karaka Million, including first in prize money Order of Entry Aotea Lad (Savabeel), Probabeel, Yourdeel (Dundeel), Louis Luck, and Challa (Dissident). And a decision is now awaited as to which stable rider Opie Bosson would choose.

“Yes, we've all got something to think about but what a nice thing to have,” Lindsay said.

After impressing Bosson at the trials in October at Waipa, when beating subsequent stakes' winner and another Lindsay owned filly Bavella (Snitzel), Probabeel debuted with a very game performance for second in the 2YO 1000 metres on 10 November at Te Rapa. She followed up with an impressive four and a half length win on 1 December in the Maiden 2YO 1100 metres at Ellerslie, looking special in the process, and the latest effort saw TAB bookmakers trim her from $4.80 to outright $2.60 favourite for what is again shaping as an electrifying contest in the Karaka Million.

“She got off them and took a bit to wind up, but the last 100m was awesome,” Bosson said. “I wasn't too worried (settling back), managed to get out to the three wide train just before the turn and took awhile to wind up. I don't know, but maybe a set of blinkers might be going on for the Karaka Million?

“It would mean I have to lose a bit more weight for this one,” said Bosson, if to ride Probabeel at 54.5kgs, after riding Avantage a half-kilo over last year at 55kgs. Bosson also rode the Te Akau trained Champion Two-Year-Old Melody Belle (Commands) to win the 2017 Karaka Million.

“There are some lovely horses I get to have the choice of that David Ellis has bought, and it's exciting times. I think she (Probabeel) is right up there and she's done nothing wrong so far.”

“It's such a thrill to have been given two horses by Brendan and Jo Lindsay to train and to have them both in the Karaka Million, where we have three of the first four favourites, is an unbelievable achievement,” said Te Akau principal David Ellis.

“Probabeel is showing so much natural ability and really is a type to develop into a super three-year-old. I also thought Chris Rutten's horse (Yourdeel) ran a terrific race for second, having his first start after winning on debut a month ago and it was a lovely lead-up run to the Karaka Million for him.

“Te Akau looks to have a really good chance of winning the Karaka Million again. Jamie has done a great job in preparing so many of our two year olds to qualify in what looks a pretty good field this year, which is terrific for racing.”

With no inbreeding through the first five removes in her pedigree, Probabeel has a fantastic broodmare future, following what is building into an exciting career on the racetrack.

“I thought it was a really good win by Probabeel. She's got a bit of class about her and is something special, I'd say,” said Richards, following his 57^thwin for the season. “She's a big leggy filly and she can only continue to improve.

“It was a lovely ride from Opie. He got her off the fence at the right time, she quickened up really well and it was a very impressive win. She can only continue to improve in twelve/thirteen days into the Karaka Million.

“The team at the middle barn take really good care of her and it's great to get another winner for Brendan and Jo. She had a break here and there and it's great that Henry Plumtre (CEO Cambridge Stud) lets us take our time. She qualified early, so hasn't had to rush and she looks a really good chance for the big one.”

Probabeel provided Bosson with his fifth win for the weekend, defeating stable-mate Yourdeel by a head in a pretty close three way finish.

“I thought Yourdeel lost no admirers in finishing second,” Richards said. “He just got to the front a little bit soon, hung off the corner a touch, but don't worry, he's a really nice horse and will be a big improver for a couple of week's time.”

Leading buyer for the past 13 years at Karaka, Ellis has been busy inspecting yearlings ahead of the New Zealand Bloodstock Sales Series which begins on 27 January.

“I'm incredibly excited by the yearlings we've inspected and tomorrow (Monday) we're going to Cambridge Stud,” Ellis said. “We've only got two more days after that and we're done.

“It's one of the best crops of yearlings I've seen prepared for Karaka since it started in 1988, and really is a reflection of the great growing season we've had in New Zealand,” Ellis said. “The foals were all weaned on beautiful grass and they've got terrific bone and substance to them.”

Probabeel was strapped by Teina Walters.

Photo credit - www.raceimages.co.nz