Ellis' Eye for a Champ

It's a huge weekend of racing in Singapore this weekend.  Of particular interest to us all at Te Akau is tonight's (early tomorrow morning NZ time) running of the 2014 $500,000 Group 1 Singapore Guineas.   The first and second favourites are both horses purchased by David Ellis at Karaka.

We are proud that the hot favourite for the event is the O'Reilly gelding War Affair who was identified, selected and purchased by David for only $70,000 at the Karaka Premier Sale.

War Affair was the Champion 2YO in Singapore under the guidance of Te Akau Singapore trainer Mark Walker last season and is a very impressive individual who has swept all before him in his lead up to tonight's feature.

So the commentators are asking - who can beat War Affair?

Interestingly enough, his strongest challenge could well come from the second favourite, another of David's purchases in the form of Rise 'n' Shine (main picture).  This classy 3YO son of Zabeel was a $120,000 Karaka Premier Sale buy by David.

Although less experienced and taking on Group 1 company in just his first prep, Rise 'n' Shine (whose stable name is Gusto) is a rising star in our Singapore stable and Mark believes that no matter what he does tonight, he has a very bright future ahead of him.  As with most Zabeel's, time will only serve to be his friend.

We will be setting the alarm and hopeful of a good showing by two young horses who both caught David Ellis' eye and were secured in the wink of one!  Good luck to Rise 'n' Shine's ownership contingent which has arrived safely in Singapore to cheer our lad on!

Here is some latest commentary from various international sources:

The Singapore stellar weekend kicks off with a bumper race meeting on Friday 16 May.

The question is how far WAR AFFAIR?

While it would be nice to find something to beat the champion three-year-old elect in the Singapore Group 1 Guineas, nothing looks close to considering.  After two good wins in the Sprint (1200m) and the Classic (1400m), the O'Reilly 3YO will only improve stepping up to the mile and it again look a case of who fills the minor placings.

The win would also take WAR AFFAIR'S prizemoney past the magical $1 million mark and take his career record to nine wins from just twelve starts - that says it all.

But racing does throw some curve balls occasionally and those looking to take on the odds on pop could make a case for RISE ‘N' SHINE who, unlike most of the other runners in the field, comes into this with winning form after by-passing the Classic. The Mark Walker-trained gelding has been impressive winning three races from four career starts with excuses when he did find one better on the day.

BOGART is the only other horse in the field that didn't race in the Classic and his last start win was also good enough to throw into the top three mix.  Of the horses that did follow WAR AFFAIR home in the Classic, GOODMAN obviously ran a terrific race to finish only two lengths from the winner with daylight to the third placed horse, ROOM FOR EXCUSE.

PERFECT CHALLENGER ran on to finish fourth but given he has since raced and won in Class 3 company, he could easily improve again and get a Group 1 podium finish.
BLUE SWEDE bombed in the Classic but as he was always going to go better over the mile, it may pay to put a line through that run and keep safe at value.

Race 7 - Singapore Group 1 Guineas

Selections: 1 WAR AFFAIR - 5 RISE ‘N' SHINE - 9 BLUE SWEDE - 2 GOODMAN

WAR AFFAIR has carried all before him and looks to have a mortgage on the race. If anything he is better at 1600m than the shorter journeys over which he has put paid to much of the field in the past. With regular rider Dan Beasley to steer, he is clearly the one to beat. The stablemate PERFECT CHALLENGER continues to improve running home strongly to beat a good Class 3 field over 1400m at his last outing; he has a good turn of foot and with Oscar Chavez on top will be closing better than most at the end of the 1600m.

RISE N SHINE is by Zabeel so the mile should be no problem. He is in great form and Mark Walker would undoubtedly take great delight if he could lower the colours of his former charge in such a prestigious race. The value runner could be ROOM FOR EXCUSE, from the Takaoka stable he steps up to a mile for the first time and should be finishing off strongly.

The enigma of the race is BLUE SWEDE who put in a shocker last start but the excuse was that he choked up; the tongue tie goes on and if can produce his best could be the surprise packet. Laurie Laxon has his pair GOODMAN and DANIEL engaged and whilst both are honest WAR AFFAIR has always had their measure.

1 WAR AFFAIR *** Star of Singapore racing and hard to see him being beaten. 1.80
2 GOODMAN ** Super effort to keep WAR AFFAIR honest last start and in the mix again. 10
3 DANIEL * Obviously better than what he has shown last two but hard to have. 100
4 PERFECT CHALLENGER ** Backed up good run in the Classic with a great Class 3 win. Follow. 12
5 RISE ‘N' SHINE ** Very smart type who comes into this with winning form and expect support to test WAR AFFAIR. 4.00
6 ROOM FOR EXCUSE ** Beaten a long way into third in the Classic and appreciates the mile. 8.00
7 BOGART * Comes into this with a Class 4 win under his belt and that is not good enough. 33
8 MARSEILLE ROULETTE * Excuses last start but could be tested this level. 33
9 BLUE SWEDE ** Excuses in the Classic so tongue-tie goes on and will be closing late. Keep safe. 12
10 LIVELY DRAGON ** Hard to argue with two wins from two starts but huge leap in faith from KSD company. 33