History Says - 2016 Australian Guineas

www.racing.com reports:

Xtravagant will be out to join a long list of New Zealand stars to upstage the Aussies on their own turf when he contests Saturday's Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington.

The Kiwis have a famed history in the Melbourne Cup and while it has been almost 15 years since they put the polish on a winner of that race, they still hold their own as a feature-race force.

Just last weekend Turn Me Loose won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, his second Melbourne Group 1 win of the season, while his stablemate Mongolian Khan won last year's Caulfield Cup and you only have to go back to 2012 for Ocean Park's Cox Plate win.

One race that has escaped the NZers, however, is the $750,000 Australian Guineas.

Not that they have been much of a player in it, in recent times at least. It took a star in Mouawad to deny O'Reilly in 1997 and New Zealand had placegetters in two of the three years the race was run over 2000 metres - 1998 to 2000 - but the Kiwis have had just five runners since.

The best result from that handful was produced by Mark Walker-trained Darci Brahma, who finished second to Apache Cat as a $6 chance a decade ago.

The Murray Baker-trained We Can Say It Now was the shortest-priced of the five, starting the $4.80 favourite in 2011, but she could manage only 14^th in the field of 16, which was led home byShamrocker.

She was the first New Zealand-trained horse to start favourite in the Guineas since Zonda, who finished second to Gold Guru at 13/8 ($2.60) in 1998.

We Can Say It Now started favourite on account of Group 1 wins in the Levin Classic (1600m) and Captain Cook Stakes (1600m), but finished fifth in the Waikato Sprint (1400m) at her final run before crossing the Tasman.

Form Focus data reveals that never in the 30 years of the Guineas has it been won by a horse who finished further back than fourth at its final start before the Guineas.

Just two of those winners had finished fourth at their previous run, while only three were coming off a third placing, meaning 25 of the 30 Guineas winners filled a quinella slot at their final lead-up run.

Seventeen of them were last-start winners, as is the Stephen Autridge and Jamie Richards-trained Xtravagant, who defeated the older horses by eight lengths in the Group 1 NRM Sprint (1400m) at his most recent appearance.

Mahuta, Tivaci and Risque are the other last-start winners in this Saturday's race, while Palentino and Sailing By are those with a ‘2' next to their name.

Importantly for Xtravagant and Mahuta, who drew barriers three and nine respectively, they will start from single-figure gates. Mosheen, who won from the outside barrier (16) in 2012, is the only Guineas winner to spring from a double-figure barrier.

Tivaci and Palentino, who drew gates 13 and 16, had their final pre-Guineas start in the CS Hayes Stakes - in which Palentino was first over the line, only to be relegated to second on protest - which was the race that produced last year's Guineas winner Wandjina.

But you have to go back to 2003 to find the previous Australian Guineas winner who used the 1400m Group 3 race at Flemington as its final Guineas lead-up.

In that time, the Autumn Stakes (three times) and The Vanity (twice) are the only other races that have been used as a successful final Guineas lead-in on more than one occasion.

Autumn Stakes winner Mahuta is joined by Sailing By (second), Snoopy (third) and Tarzino (fourth) as horses out of the 1400m Group 2 at Caulfield running in the Guineas, while Perfect Reflection andJameka, the third and fourth placegetters from The Vanity, join Sailing By as the fillies in the race.

The girls had a good patch between 2007 and 2012, winning three of the six editions, taking to four the number of that sex to have beaten the boys after Triscay (1991) was the first to do so.

Two of those recent fillies winners, Miss Finland (2007) and Mosheen, also won the Crown Oaks and Jameka will become the fifth filly to attempt that double this weekend.

Tarzino will become the 11^th Victoria Derby winner to contest the Guineas, with King's High (1989) and Mahogany (1994) those to have won both races.

Damien Oliver has the ride on Jameka, while Craig Newitt will partner Tarzino and that pair are among the 10 jockeys that share the record for most Australian Guineas wins with two apiece.

History Say Verdict: Given the Kiwis are yet to win the Guineas and you have to go back to 2008 for the last favourite to win, it might be best to look outside Xtravagant despite him ticking most other boxes. As a last-start winner of a proven Guineas lead-up event who has drawn a single-digit alley, Mahuta gets the nod with the filly he defeated narrowly last start - Sailing By - the value.