Limerick for the Legend

Date: 16 Feb 2024

Limerick for the Legend

Adam Blencowe of reports:

A Kiwi named Imperatriz, 

Came to Australia and won as she pleased, 

She wore tangerine, 

Smashed up the sprint scene, 

Now the Lightning is next to be seized. 

As it stands, Imperatriz should be considered the best sprinter in the world.

The other prime candidate, Lucky Sweynesse, has run five times in his latest campaign and been beaten three times. Drawing from those ratings at random against the same most recent set of five from Imperatriz sees the mare come up trumps ~90% of the time.

In the same five-run span at home, Think About It has emerged and bagged the Everest to go with a Group One double in Brisbane. The Everest, as a single piece of form, is a match for what Imperatriz has achieved but when we consider the full five-start array and simulate races at random, the Tangerine Terror comes out on top - winning ~80% of the time.

The Americans have Elite Power; akin to a Roland Garros specialist operating on the dirt, winning the same final over and over again and obviously good but deep down no one cares, while the European flat scene over the past 12 months has been a rich tapestry of mediocrity. Which is to say, typical.

Imperatriz is fast, versatile and relentless. She deserves to be ranked one not just because of a peak rating but also because of her sixth best rating (122) and her best heavy track rating (118), a figure that she has also produced over a mile, and for the fact that every one of her last five have been (very) fast - all topping that sixth-best 122.

She wears bright colours, that look good both under lights and sunshine, and she's won from on the speed and off. She is, quite simply, a bundle of fun.

Less fun is the fact that the market will do a pretty good job of summing up her chances in Saturday's Lightning and that I am contractually obliged to provide interesting betting options and not just wax about horses I like and am looking forward to in this running blog.


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