Probabeel Wins - No Problem

Sometimes a few race meetings can go by without a horse putting their hand up as a bit special, but those fortunate enough to witness the winning performance by Probabeel (2 f Savabeel - Far Fetched, by Pins) could quite safely say they saw a good one on 1 December at Ellerslie.

Owned by Brendan Lindsay MNZM & Jo Lindsay of Cambridge Stud, she was purchased by David Ellis for $380,000, from the draft of Waikato Stud, at the Karaka Book 1 Sale in January this year.

“It's an absolute thrill to train our first winner for Brendan and Jo,” Ellis said. “They're doing an amazing job at Cambridge Stud. They cemented their holding in the industry when buying the time-honoured nursery from Sir Patrick and Justine, Lady Hogan, and it shows their passion for the racing industry and that they're in it for the long haul. It really is fantastic.

“I purchased the filly at Karaka, to syndicate, and three days later Brendan and Jo bought her. I fell in love with this filly during our inspections at Waikato Stud, and we've had so much success when buying first foals.

“She's shown plenty from the moment we broke her in at Te Akau Stud and she's a filly with a lot of quality. Her dam, Far Fetched, showed the family quality in her three wins and was stakes' placed in the Lowland Stakes (Gr. 3, 2100m).

“She's a filly I believed could win as a two-year-old and train on to become a really good 1000 Guineas prospect, before going on to contest other races in the (New Zealand Bloodstock) Filly of the Year Series.”

Probabeel impressed rider Opie Bosson when winning at the trials in October at Waipa, beating subsequent stakes winner Bavella (Snitzel), and debuted with a very game performance for second in the 2YO 1000 metres on 10 November at Te Rapa, running the fastest last 600m (33.4).

Drawn the outside barrier (6) in the $20,000 Withers & Co Chartered Accountants Maiden 2YO 1100 metres, Probabeel positioned fifth on the outer, stood the leader seven lengths at the 600m, still four (lengths) away at the 400m, before going into overdrive at the 200m and she won easing down by 4 ½ lengths.

“She hit a bit of a flat spot and I was a little bit worried turning in, but once she changed legs and balanced up in the straight she was back underneath me straight away,” Bosson said.

“She is certainly up there amongst the best two-year-olds at Te Akau, but she is growing and going through a development stage at the moment. So, whatever she does now is just a bonus and I can't wait for her as a three-year-old.”

Bosson added that the track was perfect (Dead4): “they're just getting their toe in”.

Probabeel ran the 1100 metres in 1:05.0, last 600m in 34, and a hot favourite she paid $1.40 to win.

Trainer Jamie Richards was another to be impressed by the victory. “It was a very good win and she's a pretty exciting filly,” he said. “She had trialled really well and probably didn't quite get the ‘rub of the green' on debut at Te Rapa. She tried hard and wasn't beaten by much (head).

“She a tall filly, with plenty of scope, and doesn't really look like a natural two-year-old, but she possesses an X factor which means she's capable of doing what some other horses aren't able to.

“She's a very laidback customer in training, but her work had been good and the side winkers helped her concentration.

“The way Opie rode her: back in the field and finding the line is a good pattern for her and the race tempo certainly allowed her to finish off strongly. I think she'll improve a lot for the win and it's a real pleasure to train a winner in the yellow and black checks for Brendan and Jo (Lindsay).

“She's had a reputation with the team at home for a while and they've done a great job in her preparation.”

Richards said that Probabeel would have a short break now in preparation for a lead up race on her way towards the $1m Karaka Million (Restricted Listed, 1200m) on Saturday 26 January at Ellerslie.

“While the winning performance was very impressive, it was also a great effort by Opie to get his weight down to ride her 55.5kgs,” Ellis said. “He's working really hard on his weight and fitness. It's great to see him so fit and he could be riding around 54.5kgs over Christmas and the New Year, which, again, is great for everyone involved in the racing industry to have such a high quality rider able to take a wider range of mounts."

At the time of purchase, Waikato Stud boss Mark Chittick said: “She's a sensational type of filly, with a beautiful pedigree and there is so much depth in this family. She was extremely well bought by Te Akau. I'm rapt the filly will go there and get every opportunity”.

Probabeel was strapped by Teina Walters.

Walters said: “It was nervous moments at the 600m, but Opie had a lapful of horse and at the 200m she really kicked away like we knew she could. She's a bit like that when she works, too, and only does what she needs to do. She'll learn a lot (from the win) and she's a filly that's really going to progress into an Oaks filly or something like that”.

Photo credit - www.raceimages.co.nz