Xtravagant takes on Speed Machines

www.stuff.co.nz reports:

Take them or leave them, like them or loathe them, speed maps do have a place when reading form for black-type races.

How accurate they become when reality strikes and 14 top class sprinters take to the track is educated guesswork.

Take Saturday's Group I NRM Sprint (1400m) at Te Rapa where determining the pacemaker is a raffle let alone trying to establish where runners will settle.  Xtravagant, In Style, Allez Eagle, Fast Dragon, Mabeel - take your pick - all have the speed to lead.

Pin-up 3-year-old Xtravagant has amazing gate speed and in any other race would be expected to comfortably hold the front.

However, he meets some tough cookies who won't give up the thick end of the $200,000 stake without a fight and he's unlikely to be handed the pace on a plate.

Rain affected track conditions were blamed for the Pentire colt's surprise defeat against his own age group last start in the Levin Classic (1600m) but he was softened up in front and had nothing left at the business end.  The ground will be good on Saturday, but Xtravagant ($2.70) could well be put under similar pressure if jockey Matthew Cameron makes a decision to lead.

That could play into the hands of the next fancies in early markets Sacred Star ($5) and Sports Illustrated ($8).

They will be sitting off speed and will be launched for a late run at those at the head of the field and if the race is run at a hectic pace, those saved for a late burst could prevail .

Trainers do their level best to have horses at peak for the big races.  In the cases of Xtravagant, Sacred Star and Sports Illustrated reports coming out of the respective stables are positive.

"We are really happy with his work," said Jamie Richards Xtravagant's co-trainer with Stephen Autridge. "It's full bore to the NRM and hopefully that will serve as a stepping stone to Australia."

The colt is well in the market for the A$750,000 Group I Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington on March 5.

Murray Baker prepares Sports Illustrated with Andrew Forsman and expects the mare to strip fitter than when a solid third in the Group I Thorndon Mile last start.

"We knew she was a bit fresh last start but she went a good race after she missed a race at Tauranga when the track was wet," Baker said. "She will be a bit fitter this Saturday."

Tony Pike is confident Sacred Star and his second entrant, Allez Eagle ($14), are right on target for the race won by Sacred Star last year.

"He's been tripped up by wet tracks in his last two but went good races with conditions against him," Pike said. "They have both done extremely well and should go good races in a strong field."

Donna Logan and Chris Gibbs know their classy gelding Volkstok'n'barrell ($10) will improve with Saturday's outing but are happy with his condition.  The son of Tavistock hasn't raced since unplaced in the Caulfield Cup but caught the eye when second to Turn Me Loose in a recent Avondale trial.  He hit the line strongly in the 1200m heat and has continued to progress well in the meantime.

Vespa ($10), Ryan Mark ($13), Natuzzi ($21) and for outside odds, Trepidation ($41) shouldn't be left out of calculations in a race shaping as an absolute crowd pleaser.